Background: Urban stormwater drainage systems are historically
designed based on historical rainfall intensity-duration-frequency (IDF)
curves, which are increasingly rendered obsolete by climate variability.
Objective: This study aims to evaluate the hydraulic capacity
of existing urban drainage networks under simulated future climate change
scenarios to identify critical infrastructure vulnerabilities.
Method: This study uses a simulated dataset created for
academic training purposes. The Storm Water Management Model (SWMM) was
utilized to simulate rainfall-runoff dynamics for a 500-hectare urban
catchment. Simulated rainfall data for baseline (2020) and future scenarios
(2050 and 2080) under RCP 8.5 were inputted into the model.
Key Results: Results indicate a 22% increase in peak runoff
volume by 2080. The analysis revealed that 35% of the existing secondary
conduits will experience surcharging under future rainfall intensities, leading
to a 40% increase in localized flooding extent.
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